The NPI "Ask What You Want to Know" series is a forum in which leading researchers discuss issues of current interest and field questions from attendees.

Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine has exceeded one and a half years, and, with Ukraine launching a counteroffensive, the situation is still unclear. Diplomatic developments by various countries regarding the situation in Ukraine continue to be turbulent. We invited Hirose Yoko, Senior Fellow at NPI and Professor at Keio University, and Kurai Takashi, former Ambassador of Japan to Ukraine, to discuss the course of the war in Ukraine.

Moderator

Fujisaki Ichiro, Former Ambassador of Japan to the U.S.; Advisor, NPI　

Panelists

Kurai Takashi, Former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Japan to Ukraine; Former Envoy Extraordinary and Minister Plenipotentiary, Embassy of Japan in Russia

Hirose Yoko, Professor, Keio University; Senior Fellow, NPI

Active discussion was held with the participation by attendees from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, other government offices, corporations, and the mass media. The main questions from attendees were organized and posed to the panelists on the day of the event as follows.

1.Taking into account the coming rainy and snowy season, the "fatigue" of supporting Ukraine, and the possibility that the situation in Gaza will deflect international criticism of Russia, which do you think will have the greater diplomatic and military advantage in the future, Russia or Ukraine?

2.The U.S. Congress is taking a hard look at support for Ukraine. Is this only for economic reasons, or are there other reasons? Also, is there a waning of support for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy among the Ukrainian people, or is there a situation of "war fatigue"?

3.What do you think of the view that Russia's attacks have been mainly against infrastructure and not mass killings of civilians? Also, with regard to the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, there is a view that the West may not be able to respond effectively. There is speculation that this is the reason that the West is not asking President Zelenskyy to retake the Crimean Peninsula.

4.What is your view on the future of the war in Ukraine for the next one to two years? Is it likely to continue for some time, is there any prospect of any kind of settlement, or is there a possibility that some kind of peace conference will be held?

The following is a summary of some of the remarks made by panelists in response to these questions.

1.Ukraine will now enter the winter season, but the war will not stop because it is infantry combat rather than a confrontation of armored divisions.

2.Opinion polls show that the morale of the Ukrainian people remains high. While it is true that support fatigue and anti-Zelenskyy sentiment is emerging in parts of Europe, many countries are firmly supporting Ukraine. The key will be the U.S.

3.The Crimea issue is challenging. The use of nuclear weapons is not likely, as the Russian people oppose the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, in addition to the lack of military rationale for the use of nuclear weapons.

4.The war is likely to continue until one of the two sides is exhausted.